Nitish Kumar proved his
majority in the Bihar Vidhan Sabha on 19 June after his party’s break-up with
the BJP. Although the BJP has accused Nitish Kumar of political opportunism and
of breaking the 17-year-old alliance – and these are serious charges – now the
biggest challenge before Nitish Kumar is how to show to the world that he is a ‘taller
secular leader’ than Laloo Prasad Yadav.
It
was not an easy task for Nitish Kumar to divorce the BJP on the issue of
Narendra Modi but he displayed the courage to accomplish it. Nitish climbing
the tree of religious fanaticism, severing its one branch and then scooting
before the branch could fall on him, was no mean feat. And he can score some
more points by appointing a Muslim as the state’s new Deputy Chief Minister
(Dy. CM). Sushil Kumar Modi, a BJP heavyweight and a Vaishya by caste has been
holding the position ever since the NDA government was formed in Bihar in the year 2005. But now, Nitish Kumar is under no
compulsion. He is the lord of all he surveys. There is no gathbandhan dharma
(alliance duty) of appointing a person chosen by someone else as Dy. CM.
However,
the fact is that Muslims will not begin flocking to Nitish Kumar’s camp only
because he has abandoned the BJP on the question of Modi. Not entirely in jest,
it is often said in Bihar that Narendra Modi
and Nitish Kumar are cousins. Stories recalling Nitish showering lavish praises
on Modi have become the staple fare of newspapers published from Bihar these days. Photographs of the duo exuding mutual
cordiality are also finding place in the columns of the newspapers. Not only
the BJP but even the members of Nitish’s close circle are fanning this
impression.
It
Nitish names a Muslim as his Dy. CM, he will be killing not two, not three but
five birds with one stone. He will break Laloo’s MY (Muslim plus Yadav) vote
bank, win the confidence of the Muslims and give an extra sheen to his secular
image. That will make Laloo fall flat on his face and Nitish will emerge a winner
in the game which Ramvilas Paswan has been playing for quite some time now by
demanding that Bihar should have a Muslim chief minister.
Muslims
constitute nearly 16 per cent of Bihar’s population. That means that the state
Vidhan Sabha should have 38–40 Muslim members. But their number has never
exceeded 20–25. As for the Lok Sabha, barely 4–5 of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in
the state go to Muslims. In 2009, Bihar
returned three Muslims to the Lok Sabha. The corresponding figures for earlier
general elections were 5 (2004), 3 (1999) , 4 (1996), 6 (1991), 3 (1989), 6 (1984),
4 (1980), 2 (1977), 3 (1971), 2 (1967), 2 (1962), 3 (1957) and 3 (1952). As far as giving tickets to
Muslims is concerned, RJD and LJP have been ahead of other parties. (All
figures from senior journalist Shrikant’s booklet Bihar ke Musalman:
Rajneeti Mein Hissedari[Muslims in Bihar :
Share in Politics]).
The
low representation of Muslims in the Vidhan Sabha and the Lok Sabha indicates
that the community still lacks political consciousness. Its economic condition
is worse still. According to the 2001 census, 51.5 per cent Muslims are
agricultural labourers. The Sacchar committee report and Census 2001 show that
only 42 per cent Muslims are literate. The percentage of Muslims in government
jobs is a mere 7.6. In the education department, they hold only 12.3 per cent of
the posts.
The
Muslim vote bank was exploited to the hilt in the wake of the demolition of
Babri mosque. Laloo Prasad stopped Advani’s rath, arrested him and earned his
secular badge overnight. Now, the question is whether Nitish Kumar will emerge
as the champion of secularism by stopping Narendra Modi’s PM juggernaut. Nitish
Kumar has managed to reduce the pressure on himself by parting ways with
Narendra Modi’s BJP. But when Modi’s Hindutva Rath thunders through Bihar , how will Nitish Kumar stop him? Nitish had also
played a role in the arrest of Advani but Laloo cornered the entire credit.
Nitish is still nursing that wound (See Shrikant’s book Chitthiyon kee Rajneeti
[Politics of Letters], Vani Prakashan, New
Delhi
Nitish
Kumar fears that Narendra Modi and Sushil Modi’s base among the Extremely
Backward Classes (EBC) may dent his support there. Laloo will do the rest. The
EBC population of Bihar is 35 per cent. In an
effort to appease EBCs, Nitish had given reservation to them in panchayats in
2010. That brought him dividends too. Now, the BJP wants to usurp the EBC vote
bank in the name of Modi’s caste (Ghanchi, equivalent to Teli in Bihar ).
Nitish
Kumar is currently stationed at a political crossroads. As I said in the beginning,
he should appoint a Muslim as Dy. CM. That will not only help him politically
but would also give a boost to the democratic functioning in the state. Nitish has one more option. He can take the
wind out of Narendra Modi’s sails by naming an EBC as his Dy. CM. This will not be a bad choice for him either.
His ultimate priority should be to save his fortress in Bihar
from collapsing. But, if he tries to appease the upper castes, which are
leaning towards the BJP, by appointing a Bhumihar, Rajput or Brahmin leader as
his deputy, he would only be fuelling a ‘counter-revolution’ – something for
which his regime has earned notoriety.
If he does this, he will lose whatever little confidence the OBCs and EBCs
still repose in him. He will fall between two stools.
Pranay Priyamvad is a senior journalist with Aryan TV, Patna
(Published in Forward Press, July, 2013 Issue)Forward Press.
